Predictable unpredictable?

If the result of the Bristol mayoral election is really 'completely unpredictable' (as this Post story says) how come the bookies can come up with betting odds? Or is it that we know from past voting patterns and current polls and political developments that the most likely outcome is a Labour or liberal-minded independent candidate winning? In other words Marvin Rees vs George Ferguson because both are broadly progressive and not being blamed for current problems. Surely we can count out Tories and Lib Dems because of the ongoing recession and the cuts/austerity program. The Tories dont have the votes needed across the whole city in any case and the Lib Dems are taking the brunt of the criticism of the coalition govt (thus they are at 10% or so in the polls). Hard to predict the final result between two particular candidates: yes. Completely unpredictable: no. 

Ferguson favourite

Architect George Ferguson has emerged as the early favourite to become Bristol’s first elected mayor. He is quoted by Ladbrokes at 2/1...(full Post story here).
George Ferguson is a pretty canny operator. He does have a decent chance of becoming the first Mayor of Bristol, though I don’t see how the odds make much sense at this very early stage. Arguably he already has a national standing which no other potential candidate currently in the picture can equal.

It will be interesting to see the policies George and his team come up with - and what the Lib Dem position on selecting a candidate is. Other independent candidates may emerge and the Greens may put someone up too.

Some background on George Ferguson here and here.

Safe systems?

The Evening Post headline 'Oldbury deemed safe' is misleading as it makes no sense to declare something 'safe' ie free from risk. This is not what the assessments of UK nuclear power stations have tried to do. What does make sense is to talk about degrees of risk ie the probability occurrence of various hazards. 'No major weaknesses' in UK nuclear stations is not the same as safe - better to say that certain risks have been found to be low probability. The development of life on Earth is thought to be an extremely low probability event - but here we are!